1 College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Coming in On Texas'

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The college football world was hoping for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matches underwhelmed, offering lots of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 versus the spread, including 3 fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public do not seem to think so. At least in two cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a particularly popular choice with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at in regards to overall dollars as of Monday afternoon.

"All the cash is coming in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text message to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."

The enthusiasm for the Longhorns reaches the futures market as well. Remember that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
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Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the greatest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most enjoy from sharp bettors. The Athletic talked with numerous bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to push the line to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "really highly regarded player."

Even though highly regarded money has actually been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do just that, as public wagerers are stacking on Texas.

"We would like to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.

While the Texas video game will be huge for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We talked with multiple bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has actually approached slightly to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly divided at many sportsbooks. The overall dollars wagered differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.

"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I wouldn't be surprised if this line sneaks up a little bit more before kickoff, but I currently invite any Boise State money."

Ohio State got the Oregon second opportunity it wanted. Are the Buckeyes prepared for revenge?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most unexpected to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams met back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet.

So why is OSU preferred?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke to before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise shaped his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this game before reputable cash pressed it to the current line of -2.5. A slightly greater majority of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the money has been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the 4 come kickoff.

"We did take some highly regarded cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's decent two-way action at that number today. The total has actually increased 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the greatest move of any of the totals. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp wagerers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and right away our Ohio wagerers believed we were too low. Our opening rate of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."

He did note, though, that the book had seen substantial buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The favorite turned in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What triggered the line flip? Put simply, the sports betting action.

Although Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.